Friday, March 31, 2017

“Predicting Our Future” - One Man’s Naive Attempt to Change Off Site Home Building

I am always reading and listening to what can be done to promote all things modular and this article and podcast caught my attention.


This report is from Andrew Weinreich, is a 7-time entrepreneur with 4 exits. He provides education for entrepreneurs with Andrew's Roadmaps and leads the tech podcast Predicting Our Future.

As most observers with no actual working knowledge of an industry, something he readily admits, he quickly makes the mistakes many others have done in looking at the modular home industry, deconstructing it and then making broad assumptions that prefab and modular are the best way to build new homes.

Apparently he just googled ‘Modular’ or ‘Prefab’ and immediately found Blu Homes and began his research after talking the owners. Forget actually talking to people at successful companies like Warren Buffet’s Clayton Homes or calling either the MHBA or the NAHB’S Building Systems Council.

He actually does get quite a bit right about modular housing but by starting off using Blu Homes as a model for the future of our industry he lost a lot of credibility with many in modular housing. There is a complexity to building homes offsite that is not easily known unless you do extensive research. In the end it could make you forget trying to change the way we build homes and start looking at something easier to write about, like developing time machines or hair that changes color depending on your mood.

Here is his complete article and a link to his podcast. If you are in either the Manufactured Housing industry or the Modular Home industry, please take the time to listen to it as he makes a case for modular.

The Rise Of Factory-Built Homes: Home-In-A-Box

By Andrew Weinreich ,   Forbes Contributor
I educate startup founders to increase their chances of success.

My Home Renovation

My interest in homebuilding began a few years ago when I renovated a summer home in the Hamptons at the end of Long Island in New York. My plan was for a total gut renovation: new kitchen, three new bathrooms, new plumbing, electric, insulation. I acted as my own general contractor and quickly learned why people aren’t their own general contractors. The project took four times as long as I expected and was 100% over budget. There were two main reasons for the overruns, and both of them were predictable.

CLICK HERE to read the entire article and listen to his podcast


Andrew Weinreich said...

Thanks for reviewing the podcast. I would like to take this opportunity to make a few clarifications.

1. We conducted 29 hours of interviews with experts from all around the world. Representatives from Clayton Homes, along with MHBA, elected not to be interviewed. You can see a full list of people whom we interviewed here.
2. We’ve made it clear in the podcast series that we did not pick Blu Homes or any other vendor as the most comprehensive solution for the modular or prefab industry’s challenges.
3. The homebuilding industry is an incredibly complex ecosystem. Our appreciation for this complexity is reflected in the 6 episodes we’re releasing on the topic and the significant research we conducted prior to making any predictions. Our goal was to offer an informed opinion on whether we are approaching a tipping point that will allow these builders to increase their market share in the residential housing market.

I hope you have a chance to listen to all 6 episodes (as the Forbes post includes only an excerpt and doesn’t reflect the breadth or depth of our research). Happy to connect with you by email or phone if you'd like to discuss this.

Coach said...

Thanks for taking the time to write. I can't wait for your future podcasts. And yes, I will take you up on your offer to discuss prefab and modular construction and its future in homebuilding.

Andrew Weinreich said...

Great, you can send me an email via this contact form. Looking forward to speaking with you.